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Opponent 3P% versus expected based on shooter skill and shot difficulty. Click column headers to sort.
| # | Team | Record | Adj Record | Net Games Swung | Opp Exp 3P% | Opp Actual 3P% | 3P% Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OKC | 63-18 | 68-13 | -5 | 36.5% | 37.0% | +0.5% |
| 2 | SAS | 62-20 | 60-22 | +2 | 36.4% | 35.2% | -1.2% |
| 3 | DET | 60-22 | 57-25 | +3 | 36.7% | 34.5% | -2.2% |
| 4 | BOS | 56-26 | 62-20 | -6 | 36.2% | 35.8% | -0.4% |
| 5 | DEN | 54-28 | 46-36 | +8 | 36.4% | 34.9% | -1.5% |
| 6 | LAL | 53-28 | 47-34 | +6 | 36.4% | 35.1% | -1.3% |
| 7 | NYK | 53-29 | 57-25 | -4 | 36.6% | 36.2% | -0.4% |
| 8 | HOU | 52-29 | 54-27 | -2 | 35.9% | 35.2% | -0.7% |
| 9 | CLE | 52-30 | 57-25 | -5 | 36.3% | 37.2% | +0.9% |
| 10 | MIN | 49-33 | 48-34 | +1 | 36.5% | 35.5% | -1.0% |
| 11 | ATL | 46-36 | 39-43 | +7 | 36.4% | 35.5% | -0.9% |
| 12 | TOR | 46-36 | 46-36 | 0 | 36.5% | 34.9% | -1.6% |
| 13 | PHI | 45-37 | 45-37 | 0 | 36.6% | 35.3% | -1.3% |
| 14 | PHX | 45-37 | 42-40 | +3 | 36.5% | 34.7% | -1.8% |
| 15 | ORL | 45-37 | 42-40 | +3 | 36.4% | 35.3% | -1.1% |
| 16 | CHA | 44-38 | 52-30 | -8 | 36.2% | 35.9% | -0.3% |
| 17 | MIA | 43-39 | 43-39 | 0 | 36.8% | 35.8% | -1.0% |
| 18 | POR | 42-40 | 43-39 | -1 | 36.6% | 35.8% | -0.8% |
| 19 | LAC | 42-40 | 40-42 | +2 | 36.6% | 36.4% | -0.2% |
| 20 | GSW | 36-45 | 47-34 | -11 | 36.5% | 36.2% | -0.3% |
| 21 | MIL | 32-50 | 28-54 | +4 | 36.4% | 37.5% | +1.1% |
| 22 | CHI | 31-51 | 30-52 | +1 | 36.6% | 36.8% | +0.2% |
| 23 | DAL | 26-56 | 27-55 | -1 | 36.4% | 35.0% | -1.4% |
| 24 | NOP | 26-56 | 26-56 | 0 | 36.7% | 35.0% | -1.7% |
| 25 | MEM | 25-57 | 26-56 | -1 | 36.4% | 36.4% | +0.0% |
| 26 | SAC | 22-60 | 23-59 | -1 | 36.5% | 37.9% | +1.4% |
| 27 | UTA | 22-60 | 21-61 | +1 | 36.8% | 37.2% | +0.4% |
| 28 | BKN | 20-62 | 25-57 | -5 | 37.0% | 38.1% | +1.1% |
| 29 | IND | 19-63 | 13-69 | +6 | 36.7% | 35.5% | -1.2% |
| 30 | WAS | 17-65 | 14-68 | +3 | 36.5% | 36.8% | +0.3% |
Games where 3PT variance most dramatically affected the outcome.
| Date | Matchup | Actual | Adjusted | 3PT Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | HOU @ DEN | 93-129 | 114.2-115.4 | DEN: +34.8 |
| 2026-01-12 | LAL @ SAC | 112-124 | 124.8-103.1 ⚠ | SAC: +33.7 |
| 2025-11-02 | SAS @ PHX | 118-130 | 132.4-112.6 ⚠ | PHX: +31.7 |
| 2025-12-05 | PHX @ HOU | 98-117 | 119.3-108.0 ⚠ | HOU: +30.3 |
| 2026-03-30 | CLE @ UTA | 122-113 | 137.3-98.2 | UTA: +30.1 |
| 2026-01-13 | ATL @ LAL | 116-141 | 126.9-121.9 ⚠ | LAL: +29.9 |
| 2026-02-19 | ORL @ SAC | 131-94 | 105.3-96.8 | ORL: +28.5 |
| 2026-01-22 | MIA @ POR | 110-127 | 130.2-119.0 ⚠ | POR: +28.2 |
| 2026-02-22 | PHI @ MIN | 135-108 | 113.6-114.4 ⚠ | PHI: +27.8 |
| 2026-01-12 | PHI @ TOR | 115-102 | 107.1-121.7 ⚠ | PHI: +27.7 |
| 2026-02-23 | UTA @ HOU | 105-125 | 124.8-117.3 ⚠ | HOU: +27.6 |
| 2026-03-23 | HOU @ CHI | 124-132 | 136.0-116.7 ⚠ | CHI: +27.3 |
| 2026-01-10 | MIA @ IND | 99-123 | 118.7-115.5 ⚠ | IND: +27.2 |
| 2026-03-06 | NYK @ DEN | 142-103 | 134.9-123.0 | NYK: +27.1 |
| 2026-01-19 | OKC @ CLE | 136-104 | 121.7-116.6 | OKC: +26.9 |
⚠ = Adjusted margin flips the winner