NBA 3-Point Shooting Luck-Adjusted Results

Opponent 3P% vs expected based on shooter skill and shot difficulty. Click column headers to sort.

#	Team	Record	Adj Record	Net Games Swung	Opp Exp 3P%	Opp Actual 3P%	Opp 3P% Diff	Team Exp 3P%	Team Actual 3P%	Team 3P% Diff	Net 3P% Diff	Adj OffRtg	Adj DefRtg	Adj NetRtg
1	OKC	64-18	69-13	-5	36.5%	36.9%	+0.4%	37.6%	36.5%	-1.1%	-1.5%	117.9	105.5	+12.4
2	SAS	62-20	60-22	+2	36.4%	35.2%	-1.2%	36.2%	35.9%	-0.3%	+0.9%	117.8	110.5	+7.3
3	DET	60-22	57-25	+3	36.7%	34.5%	-2.2%	36.3%	35.6%	-0.7%	+1.5%	116.0	109.6	+6.4
4	BOS	56-26	62-20	-6	36.2%	35.8%	-0.4%	36.9%	36.7%	-0.2%	+0.2%	118.3	110.6	+7.7
5	DEN	54-28	46-36	+8	36.4%	34.9%	-1.5%	37.7%	39.6%	+1.9%	+3.4%	118.5	116.8	+1.7
6	LAL	53-29	48-34	+5	36.4%	35.2%	-1.2%	36.1%	35.9%	-0.2%	+1.0%	116.3	115.6	+0.7
7	NYK	53-29	57-25	-4	36.6%	36.2%	-0.4%	37.9%	37.3%	-0.6%	-0.2%	118.2	111.5	+6.7
8	HOU	52-30	54-28	-2	35.8%	35.1%	-0.7%	37.1%	36.4%	-0.7%	-0.0%	116.6	111.5	+5.1
9	CLE	52-30	57-25	-5	36.3%	37.2%	+0.9%	36.9%	36.0%	-0.9%	-1.8%	117.9	112.0	+5.9
10	MIN	49-33	48-34	+1	36.5%	35.5%	-1.0%	37.0%	37.0%	+0.0%	+1.0%	114.5	112.2	+2.3
11	ATL	46-36	39-43	+7	36.4%	35.5%	-0.9%	37.0%	37.1%	+0.1%	+1.0%	114.1	112.7	+1.4
12	TOR	46-36	46-36	0	36.5%	34.9%	-1.6%	36.5%	35.4%	-1.1%	+0.5%	114.8	112.6	+2.2
13	PHI	45-37	45-37	0	36.6%	35.3%	-1.3%	36.3%	34.9%	-1.4%	-0.1%	114.1	114.3	-0.2
14	PHX	45-37	42-40	+3	36.6%	34.7%	-1.9%	36.7%	36.1%	-0.6%	+1.3%	113.7	113.4	+0.3
15	ORL	45-37	42-40	+3	36.4%	35.3%	-1.1%	35.5%	34.3%	-1.2%	-0.1%	113.6	113.0	+0.6
16	CHA	44-38	52-30	-8	36.2%	35.9%	-0.3%	37.4%	37.8%	+0.4%	+0.7%	116.1	112.0	+4.1
17	MIA	43-39	43-39	0	36.8%	35.8%	-1.0%	36.6%	36.1%	-0.5%	+0.5%	114.9	113.2	+1.7
18	POR	42-40	43-39	-1	36.6%	35.8%	-0.8%	35.1%	34.3%	-0.8%	+0.0%	112.7	112.9	-0.2
19	LAC	42-40	40-42	+2	36.6%	36.4%	-0.2%	37.0%	36.8%	-0.2%	+0.0%	115.4	114.2	+1.2
20	GSW	37-45	47-35	-10	36.5%	36.0%	-0.5%	37.4%	35.6%	-1.8%	-1.3%	114.9	113.7	+1.2
21	MIL	32-50	28-54	+4	36.4%	37.5%	+1.1%	38.8%	38.7%	-0.1%	-1.2%	111.3	116.2	-4.9
22	CHI	31-51	30-52	+1	36.6%	36.8%	+0.2%	36.4%	35.6%	-0.8%	-1.0%	112.0	115.8	-3.8
23	DAL	26-56	27-55	-1	36.4%	35.0%	-1.4%	36.6%	34.4%	-2.2%	-0.8%	111.0	115.8	-4.8
24	NOP	26-56	26-56	0	36.7%	35.0%	-1.7%	35.3%	34.7%	-0.6%	+1.1%	112.7	118.2	-5.5
25	MEM	25-57	26-56	-1	36.4%	36.4%	+0.0%	35.3%	35.3%	+0.0%	+0.0%	110.5	116.2	-5.7
26	SAC	22-60	23-59	-1	36.5%	37.9%	+1.4%	35.3%	34.0%	-1.3%	-2.7%	110.3	117.7	-7.4
27	UTA	22-60	21-61	+1	36.8%	37.2%	+0.4%	35.1%	34.5%	-0.6%	-1.0%	112.4	119.4	-7.0
28	BKN	20-62	25-57	-5	37.0%	38.1%	+1.1%	35.3%	34.1%	-1.2%	-2.3%	108.2	116.0	-7.8
29	IND	19-63	13-69	+6	36.7%	35.5%	-1.2%	35.8%	35.6%	-0.2%	+1.0%	109.2	117.8	-8.6
30	WAS	17-65	14-68	+3	36.5%	36.8%	+0.3%	35.2%	35.9%	+0.7%	+0.4%	108.1	120.0	-11.9

#	Team	Record	Adj Record	Net Games Swung	Opp Exp 3P%	Opp Actual 3P%	Opp 3P% Diff	Team Exp 3P%	Team Actual 3P%	Team 3P% Diff	Net 3P% Diff	Adj OffRtg	Adj DefRtg	Adj NetRtg
1	NYK	12-2	11-3	+1	36.9%	30.5%	-6.4%	37.7%	40.0%	+2.3%	+8.7%	117.2	106.3	+10.9
2	OKC	11-3	10-4	+1	36.5%	34.4%	-2.1%	38.2%	36.6%	-1.6%	+0.5%	115.4	107.9	+7.5
3	SAS	11-6	12-5	-1	37.3%	32.8%	-4.5%	36.0%	36.1%	+0.1%	+4.6%	110.3	104.6	+5.7
4	CLE	8-10	9-9	-1	37.9%	37.5%	-0.4%	36.5%	32.8%	-3.7%	-3.3%	110.3	109.9	+0.4
5	DET	7-7	8-6	-1	35.8%	33.4%	-2.4%	38.0%	35.9%	-2.1%	+0.3%	106.2	105.2	+1.0
6	MIN	6-6	3-9	+3	37.5%	33.5%	-4.0%	36.9%	33.7%	-3.2%	+0.8%	105.3	111.7	-6.4
7	PHI	4-7	3-8	+1	37.7%	37.0%	-0.7%	37.0%	33.8%	-3.2%	-2.5%	108.4	116.5	-8.1
8	LAL	4-6	2-8	+2	36.9%	34.4%	-2.5%	37.7%	38.5%	+0.8%	+3.3%	103.1	111.0	-7.9
9	ORL	3-4	2-5	+1	38.7%	32.7%	-6.0%	35.3%	32.8%	-2.5%	+3.5%	98.6	105.8	-7.2
10	TOR	3-4	2-5	+1	36.6%	34.1%	-2.5%	38.2%	35.6%	-2.6%	-0.1%	109.2	111.4	-2.2
11	BOS	3-4	5-2	-2	36.9%	35.2%	-1.7%	37.8%	33.7%	-4.1%	-2.4%	114.3	107.7	+6.6
12	ATL	2-4	2-4	0	37.3%	38.0%	+0.7%	37.3%	31.2%	-6.1%	-6.8%	104.7	115.6	-10.9
13	HOU	2-4	4-2	-2	37.4%	38.6%	+1.2%	36.3%	30.2%	-6.1%	-7.3%	106.0	102.2	+3.8
14	DEN	2-4	3-3	-1	36.7%	33.7%	-3.0%	39.4%	31.1%	-8.3%	-5.3%	111.3	111.1	+0.2
15	POR	1-4	3-2	-2	35.7%	41.8%	+6.1%	36.7%	30.2%	-6.5%	-12.6%	106.3	106.9	-0.6
16	PHX	0-4	0-4	0	38.5%	36.3%	-2.2%	35.3%	34.0%	-1.3%	+0.9%	105.9	124.0	-18.1

Highest 3PT Variance Games

Regular season games where 3PT variance most dramatically affected the outcome

Date	Matchup	Actual	Adjusted	3PT Luck
2026-03-11	HOU @ DEN	93-129	114.2-115.4	DEN: +34.8
2026-01-12	LAL @ SAC	112-124	124.8-103.1 ⚠	SAC: +33.7
2025-11-02	SAS @ PHX	118-130	132.4-112.6 ⚠	PHX: +31.7
2025-12-05	PHX @ HOU	98-117	119.3-108.0 ⚠	HOU: +30.3
2026-03-30	CLE @ UTA	122-113	137.3-98.2	UTA: +30.1
2026-01-13	ATL @ LAL	116-141	126.9-121.9 ⚠	LAL: +29.9
2026-02-19	ORL @ SAC	131-94	105.3-96.8	ORL: +28.5
2026-01-22	MIA @ POR	110-127	130.2-119.0 ⚠	POR: +28.2
2026-02-22	PHI @ MIN	135-108	113.6-114.4 ⚠	PHI: +27.8
2026-01-12	PHI @ TOR	115-102	107.1-121.7 ⚠	PHI: +27.7
2026-02-23	UTA @ HOU	105-125	124.8-117.3 ⚠	HOU: +27.6
2026-03-23	HOU @ CHI	124-132	136.0-116.7 ⚠	CHI: +27.3
2026-01-10	MIA @ IND	99-123	118.7-115.5 ⚠	IND: +27.2
2026-03-06	NYK @ DEN	142-103	134.9-123.0	NYK: +27.1
2026-01-19	OKC @ CLE	136-104	121.7-116.6	OKC: +26.9

⚠ = Adjusted margin flips the winner

Highest 3PT Variance Games — Playoffs

Playoff games where 3PT variance most dramatically affected the outcome

Date	Matchup	Actual	Adjusted	3PT Luck
2026-05-10	NYK @ PHI	144-114	120.5-126.4 ⚠	NYK: +35.9
2026-04-21	PHI @ BOS	111-97	97.8-112.5 ⚠	PHI: +28.8
2026-04-23	CLE @ TOR	104-126	111.3-110.9 ⚠	TOR: +22.3
2026-05-07	CLE @ DET	97-107	109.6-98.6 ⚠	DET: +21.0
2026-04-25	NYK @ ATL	114-98	107.9-112.5 ⚠	NYK: +20.6
2026-04-19	POR @ SAS	98-111	108.7-101.4 ⚠	SAS: +20.3
2026-04-28	POR @ SAS	95-114	110.8-110.7 ⚠	SAS: +19.1
2026-05-01	LAL @ HOU	98-78	94.2-91.7	LAL: +17.5
2026-05-25	NYK @ CLE	130-93	122.4-102.3	NYK: +16.9
2026-04-21	HOU @ LAL	94-101	103.5-94.3 ⚠	LAL: +16.1
2026-04-26	BOS @ PHI	128-96	118.5-101.8	BOS: +15.3
2026-05-28	OKC @ SAS	91-118	105.8-117.5	SAS: +15.3
2026-05-02	PHI @ BOS	109-100	107.7-113.9 ⚠	PHI: +15.3
2026-05-04	PHI @ NYK	98-137	97.9-122.7	NYK: +14.2
2026-04-29	TOR @ CLE	120-125	119.8-111.6 ⚠	CLE: +13.2

⚠ = Adjusted margin flips the winner

NBA 3-Point Shooting Luck-Adjusted Results

Games by Date

Team Rankings

Highest 3PT Variance Games

Highest 3PT Variance Games — Playoffs