What is this? How much did the notorious variance of 3pt shooting affect the outcome of the game? This page attempts to take some (but far from all) luck out of the boxscore equation by reimagining every NBA result as if the 3 point gods played no favorites. That is, if every shot went in according to its long term expected outcome. Of course, those outcomes are an imperfect science and this analysis does not use every conceivable piece of tracking data. But it also does not merely resort to league or team average. Instead, it looks at every shot and (1) What player shot it (2) The general shot difficulty (Catch and Shoot, pull-up, step-back etc.) It omits plenty of information, including how closely guarded the shot was according to tracking data. Please see the dirty details here.
Click on a highlighted date to see games
Opponent 3P% vs expected based on shooter skill and shot difficulty. Click column headers to sort.
| # | Team | Record | Adj Record | Net Games Swung | Opp Exp 3P% | Opp Actual 3P% | 3P% Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OKC | 44-14 | 49-9 | -5 | 36.4% | 37.0% | +0.6% |
| 2 | DET | 42-14 | 41-15 | +1 | 36.6% | 34.9% | -1.7% |
| 3 | SAS | 41-16 | 42-15 | -1 | 36.2% | 35.6% | -0.6% |
| 4 | BOS | 38-19 | 47-10 | -9 | 36.1% | 35.9% | -0.2% |
| 5 | CLE | 37-22 | 42-17 | -5 | 36.4% | 37.1% | +0.7% |
| 6 | NYK | 37-22 | 39-20 | -2 | 36.4% | 35.8% | -0.6% |
| 7 | MIN | 36-23 | 36-23 | 0 | 36.5% | 36.2% | -0.3% |
| 8 | DEN | 36-22 | 31-27 | +5 | 36.6% | 35.1% | -1.5% |
| 9 | HOU | 35-20 | 34-21 | +1 | 35.8% | 34.8% | -1.0% |
| 10 | TOR | 34-24 | 29-29 | +5 | 36.5% | 34.5% | -2.0% |
| 11 | LAL | 34-22 | 29-27 | +5 | 36.2% | 36.2% | +0.0% |
| 12 | PHX | 33-26 | 29-30 | +4 | 36.5% | 34.2% | -2.3% |
| 13 | PHI | 32-26 | 33-25 | -1 | 36.5% | 35.5% | -1.0% |
| 14 | MIA | 31-28 | 31-28 | 0 | 36.6% | 34.9% | -1.7% |
| 15 | ORL | 31-26 | 29-28 | +2 | 36.4% | 35.6% | -0.8% |
| 16 | GSW | 29-28 | 36-21 | -7 | 36.4% | 35.2% | -1.2% |
| 17 | ATL | 29-31 | 23-37 | +6 | 36.4% | 35.7% | -0.7% |
| 18 | POR | 28-31 | 28-31 | 0 | 36.6% | 36.3% | -0.3% |
| 19 | CHA | 28-31 | 36-23 | -8 | 36.2% | 36.6% | +0.4% |
| 20 | LAC | 27-30 | 27-30 | 0 | 36.4% | 36.9% | +0.5% |
| 21 | MIL | 25-31 | 21-35 | +4 | 36.4% | 36.5% | +0.1% |
| 22 | CHI | 24-35 | 23-36 | +1 | 36.6% | 37.7% | +1.1% |
| 23 | DAL | 21-36 | 19-38 | +2 | 36.3% | 34.3% | -2.0% |
| 24 | MEM | 21-35 | 22-34 | -1 | 36.2% | 36.1% | -0.1% |
| 25 | UTA | 18-40 | 18-40 | 0 | 36.6% | 37.3% | +0.7% |
| 26 | NOP | 17-42 | 18-41 | -1 | 36.6% | 35.1% | -1.5% |
| 27 | WAS | 16-41 | 12-45 | +4 | 36.6% | 36.6% | +0.0% |
| 28 | BKN | 15-42 | 21-36 | -6 | 36.9% | 37.4% | +0.5% |
| 29 | IND | 15-44 | 8-51 | +7 | 36.7% | 34.2% | -2.5% |
| 30 | SAC | 13-46 | 14-45 | -1 | 36.6% | 36.4% | -0.2% |
Games where 3PT variance most dramatically affected the outcome
| Date | Matchup | Actual | Adjusted | 3PT Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-12 | LAL @ SAC | 112-124 | 124.8-103.1 ⚠ | SAC: +33.7 |
| 2025-11-02 | SAS @ PHX | 118-130 | 132.4-112.6 ⚠ | PHX: +31.7 |
| 2025-12-05 | PHX @ HOU | 98-117 | 119.3-108.0 ⚠ | HOU: +30.3 |
| 2026-01-13 | ATL @ LAL | 116-141 | 126.9-121.9 ⚠ | LAL: +29.9 |
| 2026-02-19 | ORL @ SAC | 131-94 | 105.3-96.8 | ORL: +28.5 |
| 2026-01-22 | MIA @ POR | 110-127 | 130.2-119.0 ⚠ | POR: +28.2 |
| 2026-02-22 | PHI @ MIN | 135-108 | 113.6-114.4 ⚠ | PHI: +27.8 |
| 2026-01-12 | PHI @ TOR | 115-102 | 107.1-121.7 ⚠ | PHI: +27.7 |
| 2026-02-23 | UTA @ HOU | 105-125 | 124.8-117.3 ⚠ | HOU: +27.6 |
| 2026-01-10 | MIA @ IND | 99-123 | 118.7-115.5 ⚠ | IND: +27.2 |
| 2026-01-19 | OKC @ CLE | 136-104 | 121.7-116.6 | OKC: +26.9 |
| 2025-11-01 | HOU @ BOS | 128-101 | 105.6-105.3 | HOU: +26.7 |
| 2025-12-27 | UTA @ SAS | 127-114 | 116.3-129.9 ⚠ | UTA: +26.6 |
| 2025-11-29 | DEN @ PHX | 130-112 | 109.4-117.4 ⚠ | DEN: +26.0 |
| 2026-02-21 | PHI @ NOP | 111-126 | 122.5-112.0 ⚠ | NOP: +25.5 |
⚠ = Adjusted margin flips the winner
This analysis calculates what NBA scores "should have been" by adjusting for 3-point shooting luck on a shot-by-shot basis. See a detailed example breakdown →
Each 3-point attempt is analyzed using play-by-play data to determine its difficulty:
Expected make probability is calculated using a multiplicative adjustment:
expected = player_3P% × shot_difficulty_multiplier
Example multipliers (relative to league avg): Corner C&S = 1.12×, Above-break C&S = 1.04×, Pullup = 0.93×, Stepback = 0.90×
Each player's baseline expected make rate uses Bayesian estimation with a sliding prior based on career experience:
Rookies regress toward a conservative 32% baseline, while veterans' expectations reflect their actual career shooting adjusted for shot difficulty.