Method: How the Luck Adjustment Works

Overview +/- Games +/- Stats RAPM +/- Playoffs Playoff RAPM Method

A detailed breakdown using the PHI @ MIN game from 2026-02-22

Actual Score: PHI 135 - MIN 108

Adjusted Score: PHI 113.6 - MIN 114.4

Luck Swing: +27.8 points (Home team benefited)

The Process

1 Get Every 3-Point Attempt

We fetch play-by-play data and extract each 3-point shot with its context:

Court location: Corner 3 vs Above-the-break 3
Shot type: Catch-and-shoot, Pullup, Stepback, Running, etc.

This game had 70 total 3-point attempts.

2 Calculate Each Player's Expected 3P%

Using Bayesian estimation with a sliding prior. Player stats are weighted with exponential decay (recent shots matter more):

Player Expected 3P% = (Weighted Makes + κ × Prior) / (Weighted Attempts + κ) Where: - Base prior (μ) scales from 32% (low volume) to 36% (1000+ weighted 3PA) - The displayed prior may also be adjusted by the player's assisted/unassisted shot mix - Prior strength (κ) scales from 200 (low volume) to 300 (high volume) - Weighted stats use exponential decay so recent performance matters more

Worked Examples: Veteran vs Rookie

Player	Weighted 3PA	Weighted 3PM	Career %	Prior (μ)	Prior Strength (κ)	Expected 3P%
T. Maxey (veteran)	2865.4	1030.4	36.0%	37.6%	300	36.1%
V. Edgecombe (rookie)	2149.2	786.4	36.6%	36.0%	300	36.5%

T. Maxey: Scale = min(2865.4 / 1000, 1.0) = 1.000 μ = 32% + (36% - 32%) × 1.000 = 37.6% κ = 200 + (300 - 200) × 1.000 = 300 Expected = (1030.4 + 300 × 0.376) / (2865.4 + 300) = 1143.1 / 3165.4 = 36.1% V. Edgecombe: Scale = min(2149.2 / 1000, 1.0) = 1.000 μ = 32% + (36% - 32%) × 1.000 = 36.0% κ = 200 + (300 - 200) × 1.000 = 300 Expected = (786.4 + 300 × 0.360) / (2149.2 + 300) = 894.4 / 2449.2 = 36.5%

3 Apply Shot Difficulty Multiplier

Each shot type has a difficulty multiplier based on league-average make rates:

Final Expected % = Player Expected % × Shot Difficulty Multiplier Multipliers (relative to league avg 36.5%): Corner + Catch-and-shoot: 1.12× (easiest) Above-break + Catch-and-shoot: 1.04× Corner + Pullup: 1.01× Above-break + Pullup: 0.93× Above-break + Stepback: 0.90× Running shots: ~0.88× (hardest)

4 Sum Expected Makes & Calculate Adjustment

Sum up expected make probabilities for each team, compare to actual makes:

Luck = Actual Makes - Expected Makes Point Adjustment = Luck × (3 - ORB Rate × PPP) = Luck × (3 - 0.2608 × 1.1240) = 2.7069 × Luck

MIN Shot-by-Shot Breakdown

Each 3-point attempt by MIN with the full calculation:

Player	Result	Location	Shot Type	Weighted 3P	Prior (μ, κ)	Player Exp%	Multiplier	Final Exp%
J. Randle	✗ Miss	Above Break	Unknown	1066.8/2885.2 (37.0%)	(36.1%, 300)	36.9%	1.002	37.0%
A. Edwards	✓ Made	Corner	Unknown	1076.4/2902.1 (37.1%)	(38.2%, 300)	37.2%	1.084	40.3%
A. Edwards	✗ Miss	Above Break	Pullup	1076.4/2902.1 (37.1%)	(38.2%, 300)	37.2%	0.932	34.6%
T. Shannon Jr.	✗ Miss	Corner	Unknown	423.9/986.4 (43.0%)	(35.1%, 299)	41.2%	1.084	44.6%
D. DiVincenzo	✓ Made	Corner	Unknown	1022.8/2892.4 (35.4%)	(35.5%, 300)	35.4%	1.084	38.4%
J. McDaniels	✗ Miss	Above Break	Pullup	966.9/2661.3 (36.3%)	(34.7%, 300)	36.2%	0.932	33.7%
A. Dosunmu	✓ Made	Corner	Unknown	1047.2/2585.8 (40.5%)	(34.8%, 300)	39.9%	1.084	43.3%
A. Edwards	✗ Miss	Corner	Stepback	1076.4/2902.1 (37.1%)	(38.2%, 300)	37.2%	0.986	36.7%
J. McDaniels	✗ Miss	Corner	Unknown	966.9/2661.3 (36.3%)	(34.7%, 300)	36.2%	1.084	39.2%
B. Hyland	✗ Miss	Above Break	Stepback	1038.6/2696.0 (38.5%)	(37.2%, 300)	38.4%	0.904	34.7%
B. Hyland	✗ Miss	Above Break	Unknown	1038.6/2696.0 (38.5%)	(37.2%, 300)	38.4%	1.002	38.5%
J. Randle	✓ Made	Corner	Unknown	1066.8/2885.2 (37.0%)	(36.1%, 300)	36.9%	1.084	40.0%
D. DiVincenzo	✗ Miss	Corner	Stepback	1022.8/2892.4 (35.4%)	(35.5%, 300)	35.4%	0.986	34.9%
J. Randle	✗ Miss	Above Break	Pullup	1066.8/2885.2 (37.0%)	(36.1%, 300)	36.9%	0.932	34.4%
J. Clark	✗ Miss	Corner	Running	389.8/1022.6 (38.1%)	(34.4%, 300)	37.3%	0.932	34.7%
A. Edwards	✓ Made	Above Break	Stepback	1076.4/2902.1 (37.1%)	(38.2%, 300)	37.2%	0.904	33.6%
A. Edwards	✓ Made	Above Break	Running	1076.4/2902.1 (37.1%)	(38.2%, 300)	37.2%	0.877	32.6%
A. Edwards	✗ Miss	Above Break	Unknown	1076.4/2902.1 (37.1%)	(38.2%, 300)	37.2%	1.002	37.3%
M. Conley	✗ Miss	Above Break	Unknown	1230.3/2921.7 (42.1%)	(37.5%, 300)	41.7%	1.002	41.8%
D. DiVincenzo	✓ Made	Above Break	Unknown	1022.8/2892.4 (35.4%)	(35.5%, 300)	35.4%	1.002	35.4%
D. DiVincenzo	✓ Made	Above Break	Unknown	1022.8/2892.4 (35.4%)	(35.5%, 300)	35.4%	1.002	35.4%
A. Dosunmu	✗ Miss	Corner	Unknown	1047.2/2585.8 (40.5%)	(34.8%, 300)	39.9%	1.084	43.3%
J. Randle	✗ Miss	Above Break	Unknown	1066.8/2885.2 (37.0%)	(36.1%, 300)	36.9%	1.002	37.0%
A. Edwards	✗ Miss	Above Break	Stepback	1076.4/2902.1 (37.1%)	(38.2%, 300)	37.2%	0.904	33.6%
D. DiVincenzo	✗ Miss	Corner	Unknown	1022.8/2892.4 (35.4%)	(35.5%, 300)	35.4%	1.084	38.4%
J. McDaniels	✗ Miss	Corner	Unknown	966.9/2661.3 (36.3%)	(34.7%, 300)	36.2%	1.084	39.2%
J. McDaniels	✗ Miss	Above Break	Stepback	966.9/2661.3 (36.3%)	(34.7%, 300)	36.2%	0.904	32.7%
A. Edwards	✗ Miss	Above Break	Pullup	1076.4/2902.1 (37.1%)	(38.2%, 300)	37.2%	0.932	34.6%
B. Hyland	✓ Made	Above Break	Running	1038.6/2696.0 (38.5%)	(37.2%, 300)	38.4%	0.877	33.7%
M. Conley	✗ Miss	Corner	Unknown	1230.3/2921.7 (42.1%)	(37.5%, 300)	41.7%	1.084	45.2%
J. Randle	✗ Miss	Above Break	Unknown	1066.8/2885.2 (37.0%)	(36.1%, 300)	36.9%	1.002	37.0%
B. Hyland	✗ Miss	Above Break	Unknown	1038.6/2696.0 (38.5%)	(37.2%, 300)	38.4%	1.002	38.5%
A. Dosunmu	✓ Made	Corner	Running	1047.2/2585.8 (40.5%)	(34.8%, 300)	39.9%	0.932	37.2%
TOTALS								12.3 exp
Actual: 10 made								-2.3 luck

MIN Player Summary

Player	Shots	Made	Expected Makes	Luck	Point Impact
D. DiVincenzo	5	3	1.82	+1.18	+3.2
A. Dosunmu	3	2	1.24	+0.76	+2.1
A. Edwards	8	3	2.83	+0.17	+0.4
J. Clark	1	0	0.35	-0.35	-0.9
T. Shannon Jr.	1	0	0.45	-0.45	-1.2
B. Hyland	4	1	1.45	-0.45	-1.2
J. Randle	5	1	1.85	-0.85	-2.3
M. Conley	2	0	0.87	-0.87	-2.4
J. McDaniels	4	0	1.45	-1.45	-3.9
TOTAL	33	10	12.31	-2.31	-6.3

PHI Shot-by-Shot Breakdown

Each 3-point attempt by PHI with the full calculation:

Player	Result	Location	Shot Type	Weighted 3P	Prior (μ, κ)	Player Exp%	Multiplier	Final Exp%
K. Oubre Jr.	✓ Made	Above Break	Unknown	1000.7/2917.3 (34.3%)	(35.4%, 300)	34.4%	1.002	34.5%
T. Maxey	✓ Made	Above Break	Unknown	1030.4/2865.4 (36.0%)	(37.6%, 300)	36.1%	1.002	36.2%
D. Barlow	✗ Miss	Corner	Running	137.3/656.7 (20.9%)	(32.9%, 266)	24.4%	0.932	22.7%
V. Edgecombe	✓ Made	Above Break	Unknown	786.4/2149.2 (36.6%)	(36.0%, 300)	36.5%	1.002	36.6%
T. Maxey	✗ Miss	Above Break	Pullup	1030.4/2865.4 (36.0%)	(37.6%, 300)	36.1%	0.932	33.6%
V. Edgecombe	✗ Miss	Above Break	Stepback	786.4/2149.2 (36.6%)	(36.0%, 300)	36.5%	0.904	33.0%
Q. Grimes	✓ Made	Above Break	Unknown	1022.6/2813.0 (36.4%)	(35.7%, 300)	36.3%	1.002	36.4%
V. Edgecombe	✓ Made	Corner	Unknown	786.4/2149.2 (36.6%)	(36.0%, 300)	36.5%	1.084	39.6%
Q. Grimes	✓ Made	Above Break	Unknown	1022.6/2813.0 (36.4%)	(35.7%, 300)	36.3%	1.002	36.4%
Q. Grimes	✗ Miss	Above Break	Stepback	1022.6/2813.0 (36.4%)	(35.7%, 300)	36.3%	0.904	32.8%
T. Maxey	✗ Miss	Above Break	Stepback	1030.4/2865.4 (36.0%)	(37.6%, 300)	36.1%	0.904	32.7%
T. Maxey	✓ Made	Above Break	Pullup	1030.4/2865.4 (36.0%)	(37.6%, 300)	36.1%	0.932	33.6%
Q. Grimes	✗ Miss	Corner	Unknown	1022.6/2813.0 (36.4%)	(35.7%, 300)	36.3%	1.084	39.3%
C. Payne	✓ Made	Above Break	Pullup	992.4/2737.5 (36.3%)	(36.7%, 300)	36.3%	0.932	33.8%
K. Oubre Jr.	✗ Miss	Corner	Unknown	1000.7/2917.3 (34.3%)	(35.4%, 300)	34.4%	1.084	37.3%
K. Oubre Jr.	✓ Made	Corner	Unknown	1000.7/2917.3 (34.3%)	(35.4%, 300)	34.4%	1.084	37.3%
C. Payne	✗ Miss	Above Break	Pullup	992.4/2737.5 (36.3%)	(36.7%, 300)	36.3%	0.932	33.8%
T. Maxey	✗ Miss	Above Break	Stepback	1030.4/2865.4 (36.0%)	(37.6%, 300)	36.1%	0.904	32.7%
V. Edgecombe	✓ Made	Above Break	Unknown	786.4/2149.2 (36.6%)	(36.0%, 300)	36.5%	1.002	36.6%
V. Edgecombe	✓ Made	Above Break	Unknown	786.4/2149.2 (36.6%)	(36.0%, 300)	36.5%	1.002	36.6%
K. Oubre Jr.	✗ Miss	Above Break	Unknown	1000.7/2917.3 (34.3%)	(35.4%, 300)	34.4%	1.002	34.5%
K. Oubre Jr.	✗ Miss	Above Break	Unknown	1000.7/2917.3 (34.3%)	(35.4%, 300)	34.4%	1.002	34.5%
Q. Grimes	✓ Made	Corner	Unknown	1022.6/2813.0 (36.4%)	(35.7%, 300)	36.3%	1.084	39.3%
V. Edgecombe	✓ Made	Above Break	Pullup	786.4/2149.2 (36.6%)	(36.0%, 300)	36.5%	0.932	34.0%
J. Walker	✗ Miss	Above Break	Unknown	428.8/1310.0 (32.7%)	(34.4%, 300)	33.0%	1.002	33.1%
Q. Grimes	✗ Miss	Above Break	Stepback	1022.6/2813.0 (36.4%)	(35.7%, 300)	36.3%	0.904	32.8%
C. Payne	✗ Miss	Above Break	Pullup	992.4/2737.5 (36.3%)	(36.7%, 300)	36.3%	0.932	33.8%
T. Maxey	✓ Made	Above Break	Pullup	1030.4/2865.4 (36.0%)	(37.6%, 300)	36.1%	0.932	33.6%
V. Edgecombe	✓ Made	Above Break	Stepback	786.4/2149.2 (36.6%)	(36.0%, 300)	36.5%	0.904	33.0%
Q. Grimes	✓ Made	Above Break	Unknown	1022.6/2813.0 (36.4%)	(35.7%, 300)	36.3%	1.002	36.4%
K. Oubre Jr.	✗ Miss	Corner	Unknown	1000.7/2917.3 (34.3%)	(35.4%, 300)	34.4%	1.084	37.3%
K. Oubre Jr.	✓ Made	Corner	Unknown	1000.7/2917.3 (34.3%)	(35.4%, 300)	34.4%	1.084	37.3%
T. Maxey	✓ Made	Above Break	Pullup	1030.4/2865.4 (36.0%)	(37.6%, 300)	36.1%	0.932	33.6%
Q. Grimes	✓ Made	Corner	Unknown	1022.6/2813.0 (36.4%)	(35.7%, 300)	36.3%	1.084	39.3%
J. Edwards	✓ Made	Above Break	Unknown	714.8/1845.9 (38.7%)	(35.1%, 300)	38.2%	1.002	38.3%
J. Edwards	✗ Miss	Above Break	Running	714.8/1845.9 (38.7%)	(35.1%, 300)	38.2%	0.877	33.5%
D. Terry	✓ Made	Above Break	Pullup	335.1/1158.7 (28.9%)	(34.9%, 300)	30.1%	0.932	28.1%
TOTALS								12.9 exp
Actual: 21 made								+8.1 luck

PHI Player Summary

Player	Shots	Made	Expected Makes	Luck	Point Impact
V. Edgecombe	7	6	2.49	+3.51	+9.5
Q. Grimes	8	5	2.93	+2.07	+5.6
T. Maxey	7	4	2.36	+1.64	+4.4
D. Terry	1	1	0.28	+0.72	+1.9
K. Oubre Jr.	7	3	2.53	+0.47	+1.3
J. Edwards	2	1	0.72	+0.28	+0.8
C. Payne	3	1	1.01	-0.01	-0.0
D. Barlow	1	0	0.23	-0.23	-0.6
J. Walker	1	0	0.33	-0.33	-0.9
TOTAL	37	21	12.88	+8.12	+22.0

Final Calculation

MIN

Actual 3PM: 10
Expected 3PM: 12.3
Luck (makes above/below expected): -2.3

PHI

Actual 3PM: 21
Expected 3PM: 12.9
Luck (makes above/below expected): +8.1

ORB Adjustment Calculation

Each three-point make above expectation is not worth a full 3 points in the luck model, because expected misses still retain some value through offensive rebounds. The current model applies the configured ORB/PPP haircut:

Point Adjustment = Raw 3PT Value − ORB Opportunity Cost = Luck × (3 - ORB Rate × PPP) = Luck × (3 - 0.2608 × 1.1240) = 2.7069 × Luck

Team	Luck	Raw 3PT Value	ORB Adjustment	Net Point Impact
MIN	-2.31	-6.9	+0.7	-6.3
PHI	+8.12	+24.4	-2.4	+22.0

Net Result

The luck differential of -10.4 makes in favor of PHI translates to 28.2 points of margin swing after ORB adjustment.

Actual margin: MIN -27

Adjusted margin: MIN +0.8

Generated 2026-05-25 17:51 | View on GitHub