NERD

What is NERD?

NERD (Net Estimated Rating, Denoised) is our all-in-one player impact metric: an estimate of how many points per 100 possessions a player adds to his team, split into offense (O-NERD) and defense (D-NERD). It combines two kinds of evidence, each weighted by its reliability: what actually happens on the scoreboard when the player is on the floor (a multi-year, luck-adjusted RAPM in which every player in the league is estimated jointly), and what his statistical profile suggests (a box-score prior fit against long-run impact). Thin samples lean on the profile; large samples earn their own number.

The Denoised part is what makes it ours: every possession behind NERD runs through this site's luck-adjustment pipeline — opponent three-point variance and other scoreboard noise are muted before the model ever sees the data, and all stint scores are calibrated to official box scores. Playoff possessions are included in the on-court evidence; the statistical profile uses regular-season stats only.

PAR and WAR convert the rate into season totals against a replacement baseline. Published NERD, O-NERD, and D-NERD are possession-weighted to a league average of zero in every season, and replacement is always −2.0 NERD. Thus PAR = (NERD + 2) × possessions / 100 is total points above replacement. WAR converts that season's PAR into the fixed pool of wins above a five-replacement-player team (about 16 wins over 82 games), with shortened seasons scaled to their actual schedule length. Below-replacement players can have negative PAR/WAR. In Career mode the season values are summed.