Each team's projected point differential is built bottom-up: for every player in the team's depth chart, we take his projected minutes and multiply by his Projected NERD (his 2026-27 impact per 100 possessions, forecast by carrying his career trajectory forward along our aging curves). Summed and minute-weighted across the rotation, that gives a team net rating, which converts to an expected win total. Tested on last season, this pipeline correlates 0.92 with actual records (about ±5 wins typical error).
Minutes come from the hand-tuned depth charts where they exist, otherwise a last-season-minutes-based estimate (same as the Depth Charts pages). Players we don't project — rookies and anyone without NBA history — are treated as replacement level (two points per 100 below an average rotation slot) and tagged REP; teams leaning on unproven youth are therefore projected conservatively. Rosters reflect the current offseason snapshot and will shift with trades and signings.
| # | Team | Net Rtg | Proj W | Proj L | Off | Def |
|---|
Click a team to see its rotation. Net Rtg is centered so the league averages to .500 (projected wins across all 30 teams sum to a full season).