NBA Playoff Series – Luck-Adjusted Ratings

2025-26 · Adjusted for 3-point shooting luck

First Round

DET def. ORL  (4–3)
OffRtg DefRtg NetRtg Adj Off Adj Def Adj Net
DET101.096.3+4.6107.0100.0+7.0
ORL96.3101.0-4.6100.0107.0-7.0
PHI def. BOS  (4–3)
OffRtg DefRtg NetRtg Adj Off Adj Def Adj Net
BOS109.1106.2+2.9115.4107.4+8.0
PHI106.2109.1-2.9107.4115.4-8.0
NYK def. ATL  (4–2)
OffRtg DefRtg NetRtg Adj Off Adj Def Adj Net
ATL98.9116.1-17.2106.1116.2-10.1
NYK116.198.9+17.2116.2106.1+10.1
CLE def. TOR  (4–3)
OffRtg DefRtg NetRtg Adj Off Adj Def Adj Net
CLE108.8107.2+1.7112.6109.5+3.1
TOR107.2108.8-1.7109.5112.6-3.1
OKC def. PHX  (4–0)
OffRtg DefRtg NetRtg Adj Off Adj Def Adj Net
OKC121.7104.6+17.1122.9104.6+18.3
PHX104.6121.7-17.1104.6122.9-18.3
SAS def. POR  (4–1)
OffRtg DefRtg NetRtg Adj Off Adj Def Adj Net
POR99.6112.0-12.4106.5107.6-1.1
SAS112.099.6+12.4107.6106.5+1.1
MIN def. DEN  (4–2)
OffRtg DefRtg NetRtg Adj Off Adj Def Adj Net
DEN104.3108.6-4.4111.4111.7-0.4
MIN108.6104.3+4.4111.7111.4+0.4
LAL def. HOU  (4–2)
OffRtg DefRtg NetRtg Adj Off Adj Def Adj Net
HOU100.4103.0-2.5106.4103.4+3.0
LAL103.0100.4+2.5103.4106.4-3.0

Conference Semifinals

CLE def. DET  (4–3)
OffRtg DefRtg NetRtg Adj Off Adj Def Adj Net
CLE109.6108.1+1.4112.4107.1+5.3
DET108.1109.6-1.4107.1112.4-5.3
NYK def. PHI  (4–0)
OffRtg DefRtg NetRtg Adj Off Adj Def Adj Net
NYK126.9104.2+22.7120.2110.2+9.9
PHI104.2126.9-22.7110.2120.2-9.9
OKC def. LAL  (4–0)
OffRtg DefRtg NetRtg Adj Off Adj Def Adj Net
LAL104.9121.1-16.2103.8117.5-13.6
OKC121.1104.9+16.2117.5103.8+13.6
SAS def. MIN  (4–2)
OffRtg DefRtg NetRtg Adj Off Adj Def Adj Net
MIN97.1112.2-15.0100.3112.6-12.3
SAS112.297.1+15.0112.6100.3+12.3

Conference Finals

NYK def. CLE  (4–0)
OffRtg DefRtg NetRtg Adj Off Adj Def Adj Net
CLE97.5116.4-18.9107.1116.8-9.7
NYK116.497.5+18.9116.8107.1+9.7
SAS def. OKC  (4–3)
OffRtg DefRtg NetRtg Adj Off Adj Def Adj Net
OKC105.7109.3-3.6109.0110.8-1.8
SAS109.3105.7+3.6110.8109.0+1.8

NBA Finals

NYK def. SAS  (4–1)
OffRtg DefRtg NetRtg Adj Off Adj Def Adj Net
NYK106.1103.7+2.4107.9106.3+1.5
SAS103.7106.1-2.4106.3107.9-1.5
How it works: Offensive and defensive ratings are adjusted by replacing each team's actual 3-point makes with their statistically expected makes (based on shooter, shot location, shot type (e.g. catch-and-shoot vs. pull-up), and whether the shot is assisted or unassisted), then recomputing the score. This removes randomness from 3-point shooting variance, leaving a more stable estimate of team quality. Shaded columns (Adj OffRtg, Adj DefRtg, Adj NetRtg) are luck-adjusted; the first two columns show unadjusted actuals for comparison. In-progress series are highlighted in orange.
Generated 2026-07-19 15:10