NBA Playoff Series – Luck-Adjusted Ratings

2025-26 · Adjusted for 3-point shooting luck

First Round

DET def. ORL  (4–3)
OffRtg DefRtg NetRtg Adj Off Adj Def Adj Net
DET101.096.3+4.6105.898.6+7.2
ORL96.3101.0-4.698.6105.8-7.2
PHI def. BOS  (4–3)
OffRtg DefRtg NetRtg Adj Off Adj Def Adj Net
BOS109.1106.2+2.9114.3107.7+6.6
PHI106.2109.1-2.9107.7114.3-6.6
NYK def. ATL  (4–2)
OffRtg DefRtg NetRtg Adj Off Adj Def Adj Net
ATL98.9116.1-17.2104.7115.6-10.8
NYK116.198.9+17.2115.6104.7+10.8
CLE def. TOR  (4–3)
OffRtg DefRtg NetRtg Adj Off Adj Def Adj Net
CLE108.8107.2+1.7111.4109.2+2.2
TOR107.2108.8-1.7109.2111.4-2.2
OKC def. PHX  (4–0)
OffRtg DefRtg NetRtg Adj Off Adj Def Adj Net
OKC121.7104.6+17.1124.0105.9+18.1
PHX104.6121.7-17.1105.9124.0-18.1
SAS def. POR  (4–1)
OffRtg DefRtg NetRtg Adj Off Adj Def Adj Net
POR99.6112.0-12.4106.3106.9-0.6
SAS112.099.6+12.4106.9106.3+0.6
MIN def. DEN  (4–2)
OffRtg DefRtg NetRtg Adj Off Adj Def Adj Net
DEN104.3108.6-4.4111.3111.1+0.2
MIN108.6104.3+4.4111.1111.3-0.2
LAL def. HOU  (4–2)
OffRtg DefRtg NetRtg Adj Off Adj Def Adj Net
HOU100.4103.0-2.5106.0102.2+3.8
LAL103.0100.4+2.5102.2106.0-3.8

Conference Semifinals

CLE def. DET  (4–3)
OffRtg DefRtg NetRtg Adj Off Adj Def Adj Net
CLE109.6108.1+1.4111.9106.7+5.1
DET108.1109.6-1.4106.7111.9-5.1
NYK def. PHI  (4–0)
OffRtg DefRtg NetRtg Adj Off Adj Def Adj Net
NYK126.9104.2+22.7120.3109.5+10.8
PHI104.2126.9-22.7109.5120.3-10.8
OKC def. LAL  (4–0)
OffRtg DefRtg NetRtg Adj Off Adj Def Adj Net
LAL104.9121.1-16.2104.6118.4-13.8
OKC121.1104.9+16.2118.4104.6+13.8
SAS def. MIN  (4–2)
OffRtg DefRtg NetRtg Adj Off Adj Def Adj Net
MIN97.1112.2-15.099.8112.2-12.4
SAS112.297.1+15.0112.299.8+12.4

Conference Finals

NYK def. CLE  (4–0)
OffRtg DefRtg NetRtg Adj Off Adj Def Adj Net
CLE97.5116.4-18.9105.7116.6-10.9
NYK116.497.5+18.9116.6105.7+10.9
OKC vs SAS  (3–3)
OffRtg DefRtg NetRtg Adj Off Adj Def Adj Net
OKC105.2108.1-2.9108.9112.1-3.2
SAS108.1105.2+2.9112.1108.9+3.2
How it works: Offensive and defensive ratings are adjusted by replacing each team's actual 3-point makes with their statistically expected makes (based on shooter, shot location, shot type (e.g. catch-and-shoot vs. pull-up), and whether the shot is assisted or unassisted), then recomputing the score. This removes randomness from 3-point shooting variance, leaving a more stable estimate of team quality. Shaded columns (Adj OffRtg, Adj DefRtg, Adj NetRtg) are luck-adjusted; the first two columns show unadjusted actuals for comparison. In-progress series are highlighted in orange.
Generated 2026-05-29 15:22